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CONCORSO PRONOSTICI 2025A bit of history
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Hello everybody,
my name is Roberto Ricca and I am the organizer of the Concorso
Pronostici. Just e-mail me (cp2025@rrweb.org) for everything you
need/want (to know) about this competition or the following stats.
This is the historical site of the Concorso Pronostici and all the
results and statistics, along with some cumulative stats, have been
collected here since 1994, when the Concorso Pronostici (then CP94)
was played for the first time. Beside the first one, all the other
rankings are presented for their curiosity, with the hope that they
form a funny reading.
A bit of explanation regarding the stats that are available.
(1) Final Results
This is the only rank which really counts because it determines
the winner of the competition. He/she is officially named the
Concorso Pronostici Net-Guru, a title which gives back nothing
else but bragging rights :-).
(2) The Winner (presentation)
The winner tells something about himself/herself.
(3) Rank by Bonuses
Each week, some bonuses (15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 points)
are assigned to the first ten players. This rank is computed
by adding together all the bonuses received in the 34 weeks of
playing.
(4) Rank by Average
This rank is computed by adding the whole weekly scores (without
bonuses) and dividing the result by the number of played weeks.
Only who has taken part to least 21 stages was considered.
(5) Rank by Average and Bonus
Just as the above section (4), but including also the bonuses.
(6) Rank by Absolute Points
This rank is computed by adding the whole weekly scores (without
bonuses) without discarding any of them.
(7) Rank by Partial Guesses (1X2)
Whoever knows what Totocalcio is will easily understand what a
"partial guess" is: it is the prediction valid for the "schedina".
Therefore my explanation is for the people who don't know (and I
wonder if ever will :-).
Each CP prediction (e.g. HomeTeam - RoadTeam N-M) defines a
partial guess: 1 if N > M; 2 if N < M; X if N = M.
Since every stage contains 9 matches, the maximum number of right
partial guess one can get every week is 9 (which is a quite rare
feat - see below at (13).
This rank is computed by adding all the right partial guesses got
by each player and dividing the result by the number of weeks played.
Remember that, also in this rank, only who participated in at least
21 stages was considered.
(8) Rank by Scores-By-Odds
In the Concorso Pronostici an odd is defined for each game and
each possible result (win, draw, loss) as the square root of the
ratio between the number of predictions received in the week and
the number of predictions for the given result in the given game.
Therefore it is fairly obvious that the odd is bigger when there
is a low number of people predicting a particular result.
When a participant makes a correct prediction, its normal score
for that game (which, for a right prediction, goes from 8 to 20)
is multiplied for the corresponding odd. Instead, for a wrong
prediction, the individual so-called score-by-odds (SBO) is always 0.
The weekly SBO of each player (WSBO) is computed adding together all
his/her SBO(s) (i.e. no discards).
This rank is computed by adding all the WSBO(s) got by each player
and dividing the result by the number of weeks played. provided that
they are at least 2/3 of the total number of weeks.
(9) Rank by High Scores
It is the rank calculated by considering the best weekly score
for each player.
The first position in the Cumulative Stats gives the best high
score ever got in the history of the Concorso Pronostici.
(10) Rank by High Scores-By-Odds
It is the rank calculated by considering the best weekly
score-by-odds (see definition) for each player.
The first position in the Cumulative Stats gives the best high
score-by-odds ever got in the history of the Concorso Pronostici.
(11) Rank by Average 100-normalized
The average score of each week is put equal to 100 and all the
other scores are computed proportionally.
This rank is given considering the sum of the best 21 scores
got in such a way.
(12) Rank by HighScore 100-normalized
The best high score of each week is put equal to 100 and all
the other scores are computed proportionally.
This rank is given considering the sum of the best 21 scores
got in such a way.
(13) Rank by Low Score
It is the rank calculated by considering the worst weekly score
for each player.
There are no cumulative stats for this rank (better to forget
about it!!)
(14) Rank by Variance
Maybe "variance" is not the proper name and I not even sure that
everything will be clear after my explanation. Anyway, here we go:
I put together all the predictions received by each participant
(provided that they were at least in number of 26 - i.e. 26 weeks
of predictions); in place of the missing ones I used the actual
Italian Championship (I.C.) results and then I computed the general
standings of the I.C. as if these predictions really happened. This
is how the personal I.C. standings (HPIS) are defined.
Then I compared each HPIS with the real final standings and called
"variance" the sum of the squares of the differences between the
points indicated in the HPIS and the actual points for each of the
eighteen teams in the I.C. Obviously (I'm joking, I know :-) the
best variance is the smallest one.
No cumulative rankings for this stat.
(15) Rank by Number of Played Stages
This and the following ranks are computed only in the Cumulative
Stats section. This one rewards the presence week after week,
regardless of the results. It is done considering exclusively
the number of played stages.
(16) Rank by Number of Won Stages
It is the rank calculated by considering for each player the
number of victories in the weekly stages.
(17) Rank by Yearly Bonuses
It is the rank calculated by giving, for each year, 25 points to
the winner and then 20, 16, 13 and from 11 to 1 to the fourteen
people following him/her in the standings and then adding up
these bonuses.
(18) Nine(s) in Concorso Pronostici
This is a list of people who got all the partial guesses right in
a stage. As you will see, it didn't happen very often.
(19) All time scores
This is a sorted list of all the yearly scores.
(20) The winners
The year-to-year list of the winners
A final note regarding the Cumulative Stats. For each rank where a
minimum number (21) of entered stages is requested, a player is
ranked if he/she has entered a minimum number of stages approximately
equal to 21 multiplied by the number of previous CP editions.
Enjoy the numbers!
Roberto Ricca